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KFF projects that average monthly premiums for stand-alone Medicare prescription drug plans will rise from $34 in 2026 to $51 in 2027. The analysis says many enrollees can avoid the average increase by switching plans during open enrollment, while President Donald Trump has claimed his administration secured lower drug prices.
A KFF analysis projects that average monthly premiums for stand-alone Medicare prescription drug plans will rise 50%, from $34 in 2026 to $51 in 2027, putting pressure on millions of enrollees to review their coverage during open enrollment. The projection contrasts with President Donald Trump’s claims that his administration has secured sharply lower medicine prices, though premiums and what patients pay for specific drugs are different measures.
Nearly 25 million people are enrolled in stand-alone Medicare drug plans, according to KFF. Its analysis found that about 10.4 million enrollees—76% of those in stand-alone plans who do not receive low-income subsidies—would pay a higher monthly premium in 2027 if they stay in their current plan. That group includes 4.1 million people enrolled in plans with no monthly premium this year; KFF found no zero-premium stand-alone plans will be available in 2027.
The average increase is not necessarily what each enrollee must pay. People can compare plans and switch during the open enrollment period, which runs through Dec. 7. KFF reported that Robert Travis Scott of Abingdon, Virginia, changed plans after his AARP-UnitedHealthcare premium was set to rise from $39.60 a month to $121.90. He said he found a Humana plan with similar benefits for $19.30 a month and estimated the switch would save him about $1,000 next year.
Costs extend beyond premiums. KFF projects the average annual drug deductible for stand-alone plans will rise to $643 in 2027, from $540 in 2026. For Medicare Advantage plans that include drug coverage, the average deductible is projected to increase to $489 from $360. KFF also found most enrollees with drug coverage will face coinsurance rather than fixed copayments, which can make out-of-pocket costs less predictable because patients pay a percentage of a drug’s price.
The projections matter because beneficiaries’ total spending depends on more than a plan’s monthly premium. Higher premiums, deductibles and coinsurance can all affect household costs, and the impact varies according to the medicines a person uses and the coverage they have. A low-premium plan may not be the least expensive choice for someone whose prescriptions carry high costs.
Plan comparisons may help some people reduce premiums, but switching requires checking whether a plan covers a person’s medications and how much those drugs cost under its rules. KFF vice president Juliette Cubanski said, “the stakes are higher this year” for people with stand-alone drug coverage who do not review their options. The analysis does not establish that every enrollee can find a less expensive plan with comparable coverage.
The figures also add a separate measure to the political debate over medicine affordability. Trump has claimed that his administration negotiated lower prices from drug manufacturers. But a projected insurance premium is not the same as the price of a drug or a patient’s out-of-pocket charge. Those costs vary with prescriptions and insurance arrangements, so the premium projection alone does not verify or disprove the broader claims about drug prices.
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KFF identified a possible factor behind the projected increase: the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services ended a three-year pilot intended to hold down stand-alone plan premiums. The program provided subsidies in 2025 and 2026. CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz has described it as an insurance industry bailout; KFF said ending it after two years could contribute to higher premiums in 2027. The analysis identifies a possible cause, not proof that the program’s end accounts for the full increase.
KFF’s projection differs from a CMS estimate of a $1 increase in the national average premium, from $35 to $36. That estimate was based on September 2026 enrollment. KFF said CMS did not explain its calculation methods and suggested the agency may have assumed people would move to lower-cost plans. CMS did not immediately respond to KFF’s request for comment, according to the report.
Premium projections also vary by the type of Medicare coverage. More than half of beneficiaries are enrolled in Medicare Advantage, which generally includes drug coverage; KFF projects they will pay an average of $9 a month for the drug portion in 2027, an increase of less than $2. About 31 million people get drug coverage through Medicare Advantage, while nearly 25 million have stand-alone plans.
“With some plans increasing premiums substantially, the stakes are higher this year for people with Medicare stand-alone drug coverage if they sit on the sidelines during open enrollment.”
— Juliette Cubanski, KFF vice president and director of the Program on Medicare Policy
How Costs Will Vary
The KFF figures are projections for 2027, not final bills for every beneficiary. Actual costs depend on which plan a person chooses, whether they qualify for low-income assistance, and which medicines they use. The source report does not provide a plan-by-plan account of premium changes or establish the total out-of-pocket cost for individual patients.
The reason for the difference between KFF’s estimate and CMS’s projection remains unresolved. CMS had not responded to KFF’s request for comment at the time of the report, and the agency’s calculation method was not explained in the material provided. It is also unclear how many people will switch plans before enrollment closes or what their resulting total costs will be.
Compare Plans Before Dec. 7
Medicare beneficiaries with stand-alone drug coverage can review and change plans during the open enrollment period through Dec. 7. They can compare monthly premiums alongside deductibles, medication coverage and coinsurance, rather than judging a plan by its premium alone. The reported example of Scott’s switch shows one person’s experience, not a guarantee of similar savings for others.
Attention will also turn to how final 2027 plan options and costs compare with the estimates. Any further explanation from CMS could clarify why its average premium projection differs from KFF’s analysis. Until then, the projected increase, the agency’s calculation and the number of beneficiaries who ultimately change plans remain distinct pieces of an evolving picture.
Key Questions
KFF projects the average monthly premium will rise from $34 in 2026 to $51 in 2027, a 50% increase. Individual plan premiums vary.
Can beneficiaries avoid the projected average increase?
Some may reduce their premiums by switching plans during open enrollment through Dec. 7. Savings depend on plan availability, medication coverage and other costs; the average projection is not an individual bill.
Are Medicare Advantage drug costs projected to rise by the same amount?
No. KFF projects an average of $9 a month for the drug portion of Medicare Advantage coverage in 2027, an increase of less than $2. The figure is separate from the stand-alone plan projection.
Why might stand-alone premiums increase?
KFF said the increase may partly reflect CMS ending early a pilot that subsidized stand-alone plans in 2025 and 2026. The analysis does not establish how much of the projected increase is due to that decision.
What costs besides premiums should beneficiaries check?
They should review the plan’s deductible, medication coverage and coinsurance. KFF projects higher average deductibles in 2027, and coinsurance can make costs less predictable because it is based on a percentage of a drug’s price.
Source: kffhealthnews.org
